Capital Insights

Opportunity Review: Look for Evidence That Would Disprove the Forecast

Medro Advisors · Research and commentary from Don McClain

By Don McClain | Founder & Principal, Medro Advisors

The archived credibility framework separates facts from assumptions. Add a challenge column beside each important forecast driver: what observable result would show the assumption is wrong? For a projected conversion improvement, identify the sales cohort, observation period and result that would require revision. Assign someone to review contrary evidence, not just collect supporting examples. This is a decision discipline, not a guarantee that uncertainty can be eliminated. Revise the forecast when the evidence changes.

Source: Medro archive, September 11, 2026.
Author: https://www.donmcclain.net/
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